{"signalKey":"late-cycle-signals","date":"2026-10-11","payload":{"asof":"2026-10-11","spec":{"start":"2010-01-01","mna_source":"SEC EDGAR full-text search, monthly count of S-4 filings","conf_source":"FRED UMCSENT (University of Michigan consumer sentiment, monthly)","margin_source":"FRED BOGZ1FL663067003Q (Z.1 broker-dealer margin loans, quarterly)","top7_membership":["NVDA","MSFT","AAPL","GOOGL","AMZN","META","AVGO"],"percentile_window_days":756},"title":"Late-cycle signals","gauges":[{"id":"CONCENTRATION","name":"Index concentration (SPY/RSP)","read":"saturated (late-cycle)","value":3.6546,"percentile":0.978},{"id":"TOP7_VS_SPY","name":"Top-7 basket vs SPY","read":"saturated (late-cycle)","value":7.9668,"percentile":0.99},{"id":"MNA","name":"M&A activity (S-4 filings)","read":"saturated (late-cycle)","value":308,"percentile":0.91},{"id":"MARGIN","name":"Margin debt YoY","read":"benign","value":0.2176,"percentile":0.268},{"id":"CONF","name":"Consumer confidence 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