https://robotmoney.network/blog Research and announcements from Robot Money: market regime signals, treasury allocation backtests, DeFi exploit case studies and partnership news. en Thu, 24 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://robotmoney.network/research/channel-divergence https://robotmoney.network/research/channel-divergence Fri, 12 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Research Three transmission indicators that measure whether risk-on macro is still reaching crypto. Bitcoin's beta to risk-appetite has collapsed from 3.3 to 0.7 since March 2026, BTC/Nasdaq sits at the 1st percentile of its 3-year window, and the stablecoin-vs-Nasdaq flow proxy has turned sharply negative. Three angles, same conclusion: the channel is breaking right now. https://robotmoney.network/research/late-cycle-signals https://robotmoney.network/research/late-cycle-signals Fri, 12 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Research Four slow-moving gauges inspired by BofA's 'signposts of a market peak' checklist, rebuilt from free data: index concentration (SPY/RSP), M&A activity (SEC S-4 filing counts), broker-dealer margin debt, and University of Michigan consumer sentiment. The current configuration is unusual: late-cycle in equities (concentration high, margin debt growing 20%/yr, M&A elevated) but consumer sentiment at multi-decade lows. https://robotmoney.network/blog/ai-ate-the-bull-market https://robotmoney.network/blog/ai-ate-the-bull-market Fri, 12 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Research Stocks are up a lot in 2025-2026. Bitcoin is not. That hasn't been true in any previous cycle. Seven free-data indicators tell the same story from different angles: beta collapse, BTC/Nasdaq at the 1st percentile, stables-flow turning negative, index concentration at extremes, leveraged speculators on top of recession-level consumer confidence. A plain-English walkthrough with explanatory charts. https://robotmoney.network/blog/regime-eq-vs-base https://robotmoney.network/blog/regime-eq-vs-base Sun, 31 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Research Side-by-side backtest of the current 3-panel regime classifier (macro + on-chain + equity factor) and the legacy 2-panel classifier. Same 8 years, same point-in-time weights. The 3-panel composite wins on every portfolio, and the factor panel alone produces the best single-panel Sharpe in two of three tests. https://robotmoney.network/blog/honest-backtesting-weights https://robotmoney.network/blog/honest-backtesting-weights Fri, 15 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Research Our regime model weights indicators by inverse correlation. We discovered the backtest computed those weights with full-history hindsight, so we rebuilt it point-in-time and re-ran every comparison. Here's what held up, what didn't, and why the honest version is the one worth trusting. https://robotmoney.network/blog/regime-conservative-aggressive https://robotmoney.network/blog/regime-conservative-aggressive Wed, 13 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Research Most regime classifiers average macro and on-chain panels into a single composite. We backtest two alternatives across 8 years of ETH/cash allocation: combine them conservatively (any panel off → off) or aggressively (any panel on → on, unless contradicted). https://robotmoney.network/blog/treasury-allocation https://robotmoney.network/blog/treasury-allocation Tue, 12 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Research 8-year backtest comparing regime-based allocation, HODL, and stable yield across a full market cycle. https://robotmoney.network/regime-detection https://robotmoney.network/regime-detection Fri, 24 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Research Prior art, methods, and data sources for risk-on / risk-off regime classification. https://robotmoney.network/smart-contract-risks https://robotmoney.network/smart-contract-risks Thu, 02 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Research A field guide to how DeFi vaults get exploited: chronological case studies for protocol developers. https://robotmoney.network/blog/peaq-partnership https://robotmoney.network/blog/peaq-partnership Fri, 27 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Partnership peaq announced a partnership with Robot Money to bring autonomous treasury management to 3.3M+ machines on the peaq network. The first robot, a Hong Kong robo-farm, has already invested. https://robotmoney.network/blog/announcement https://robotmoney.network/blog/announcement Wed, 11 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Announcement Autonomous Treasury Management for the Agent Economy. A partnership between ZHC Institute and Lex Sokolin's Generative Ventures to build a managed vault for AI agents.